Trump and Harris are statistically even in national polls and have been for weeks. Source: The New York Times.
In anticipation of the upcoming presidential election on Tuesday, November 5th, the AP Statistics class, taught by Mr. Bob Emery, conducted a study to investigate the Northwood Community’s preferences for candidates running in the Presidential election.
A random sample of twenty-five percent of the Northwood community, including faculty, coaches, and students, was surveyed. Data was collected about respondents’ age, gender, and choice for the election (or no opinion), as well as additional questions regarding voting eligibility and American citizenship. One goal of the study was to compare the preferences of the Northwood community to published professional opinion polls.
Based on the results of the study, the AP Statistics class is 95% confident that the true numbers are within 13% of what they found. This 13% thus represents the study’s margin of error. It’s like a little “wiggle room” for their data, which can come up when a study uses a small sample size, like in this case at Northwood.
Preference for Kamala Harris at Northwood is somewhere between 31.4% – 57.4% and the preference for Donald Trump is between 18.3% – 44.3%.
Source: AP Statistics survey of the Northwood community, October 2024. Chart created using Chat GPT.
Another important factor in the study is “Non-Response Bias” because only 45 of the 56 individuals sent the study answered. It’s possible that the non-responders had a more favorable opinion of one of the candidates – or no opinion at all – and that preference was not captured in the survey results.
There may also be a “Timing Bias,” which would result in stronger opinions from either side when reporting.
Considering the high margin of error, the Presidential candidates are statistically tied in the AP Statistics class study, mirroring just how close the race is in national polls. The New York Times, which tracks favorability in both candidates, currently has Harris leading with only a 49% national preference against Trump’s 48%. These poll results have remained consistent for quite a while, as both candidates have polled in the high 40’s for the past several months. When considering the margin of error, Northwood is relatively split between Trump and Harris, with also a small percentage of no-opinions on the two candidates.
Source: Nate Cohn/New York Times, November 1, 20204. See: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html
One demographic that the Statistics class were able to make a conclusion on was the preference of women versus men. There was a positive association with women and Kamala Harris, with 61% preferring Harris and 42% of men preferring Donald Trump when the opposing side and “no opinion” were put into play. This is directly similar to polls from USA Today where women “decisively back Democrat Kamala Harris with 53% to 36%” support for her. The margins for Trump and men were almost exact to Harris’s with women, where men had a 53% to 37% support for him. The male preference for Trump wasn’t as strong in Northwood’s study but considering uncertainties and the “no opinions” in that group, a conclusion could not be made about the opinions of men in this selected group.
Overall, Northwood’s AP Statistics class investigation shows that the opinions of the Northwood community may be quite similar to those of the greater United States at the moment. For the full results of the AP Statistics class study, click here.
