Illustration: LinkedIn/Imane El Khalfi
Artificial Intelligence (AI) was, for a while (In early 2022), seen as the next in a series of fads concocted by the ever-disconnected set of technology/software-based entrepreneurs we as a collective referred to as the ‘tech bros,’ a group who had only just recently managed to (barely) recover from the absolute demolishment of their reputation ascribed to the rise (and subsequent, painful fall) of various cryptocurrency programs which had involved conspicuously screenshot-able PNGs of desiccated monkeys with outrageous prices attached to them (with a terrible sense of fashion, attributed to their being generated on a random algorithm uncaring of visual finesse) and the attempted purchase of an island to host supporters of their scheme in an act only too reminiscent of the esoteric cults of yore.
Technology is fantastic, yes. It is how we prevailed above all else in nature, after all. Flexible yet dangerously capricious in both direction and growth – it has outpaced natural evolution in speed by multiple orders of magnitude. If I had told someone living a mere 65 years ago so much as half of what the humans of the future do daily, I would be outed by them as mad and promptly ostracized, and for good reason. The device I am typing all this into right now is a sleek, portable version of the house-sized clunker of a glorified toaster that the engineers had only recently invented to work as a calculator that not only works at 5 million times the efficiency (3) of the said toaster but is also intrinsically connected to a global network of billions of devices that is an eternally expanding vortex of information, entertainment and faux nihilism (A topic for another day) that has become linked to our daily lives to a degree previous thought impossible.
Frustrating, however, is the unpredictability. The speed and volatility at which new, revolutionary technologies are being developed leave some unable to adapt to major, life-altering changes properly, the failure in doing so resulting in merely being considered out of touch by those more ‘in the know’ in the best case and losing one’s job, prospects and hope in the worst. There isn’t a real way to prepare beforehand, either; we, as human beings, have demonstrated an unparalleled ability to be terrible at predicting things – examples include gambling, stocks(gambling), or even tomorrow’s weather, for crud’s sake – Once again providing the need to bring out the ancient yet ever-relevant adage of a group of humans in the 1900s predicting the mass production and usage of flying automobiles in the ‘near future’ (#50 years? 100? Something something the ancient library of Alexandra). Quite nonsensical, retrospectively, when considering the gut-wrenching scenarios that would emerge upon their actual implementation, of course – On the subject of private, flying vehicles, even the loosest of Google searches sing of the cataclysms that would transition from mere campfire tales into reality upon them ever reaching the mainstream – But the idea of the invention itself felt semi-reasonable, surprisingly. The early 1900s were reeling from the sudden rise in popularity of motorized transportation as it slowly began taking over niches originally reserved for carriages driven by horses. At the same time, the first-ever airplane decided that it just really wanted to get invented. With both life-changing inventions under their belt, the denizens of the 1900s began to speculate about what was to come, and naturally, their sights drifted to what they had now: ‘Cars and airplanes. Cars + Airplanes. Flying…… Cars. Flying Cars! It makes perfect sense!’ They thought. It’s intuitive. Only ostensibly, of course, but cut them some slack.
We all know what happens next. The prediction managed to slip itself into memetic relevance wherein its story is used by many to mock/satirize the same vein of futurology that spouted said prediction in the first place – Often to prove the theory of a declining rate of technological progress as more effort seems to be directed towards the peripheral and irrelevant as opposed to something more cohesive or useful, which is ironic, considering the nature of the actual explanation for such a phenomenon. Technology isn’t a monolith – the invention/development of the ‘cool new thing’ doesn’t funnel all technological effort and funding towards it, nor does it terminate the growth of dissimilar technologies. As such, new, emerging technologies from all facets of science take their turn in the spotlight, diversifying and thus greatly limiting the extent to which we can predict their growth.
We may see something so revolutionary in the coming months that dwarfs even the towery waves raised by generative AI. We do not know, and we’ll unfortunately never be able to until such a day arrives… Or it doesn’t.
So, just what does all that have to do with AI?
The whole spiel right then with the unpredictability of rising technologies serves to disprove the idea that technology is somehow stagnating just because what comes next isn’t built off of the mainstream norm, explain the reasons as to why the nature rising technologies are nigh impossible to account for before their launch and conveniently create a segway for the revelation that generative AI isn’t actually at all something hidden that wasn’t being developed until recently. In fact, generative AI has existed for at least longer than you may have expected from something that feels so suddenly influential – that it’s not a fad that emerged out of nowhere.
The more inquisitive readers may realize what at first glance reads to be a contradiction and ask: Dear author, whom I know already to be quite the pain when trying to have a normal conversation with, how could you possibly make a claim for the technology’s unpredictability only to follow that up with a prominent ‘Not out of nowhere’? Does he even know what he is saying?
Everything makes sense when looking retrospectively – even the most ‘random’ of events bears an explanation. The internet, for instance, had its first appearance all the way back in the 1960s, funded primarily by the U.S. Department of Defense. This prototype allows for communication between multiple functioning computers. Looking back, it made sense for this to be ground zero for the birthplace of the modern internet – but for the people back then, it was only yet another esoteric piece of tech that had not the slightest chance of ever becoming relevant in the lives of the common citizen. Therefore, the development of the internet wasn’t out of nowhere, as we could track down the exact steps it took to become what it is today. Still, it wasn’t predicted to become such for those back then – they were too hyper-fixated on the invention of the laser, I suppose – and, therefore, still intrinsically unpredictable. The two qualities are not mutually exclusive.
This is even more relevant when it comes to AI. With the power of said internet, its development is fully documented. Still, as it exists alongside everything else being made and promised to become the next big thing, its rise wasn’t at all expected (at least, not by the mainstream). However, its rise made sense when looking back and seeing the rate at which it continues to grow. The unpredictability of the power of emerging technologies and the recounting of their success are taken at two differing points in time – one before its rise and one during and after. The claims are not mutually exclusive, not because they fundamentally contradict each other, but because they’re made at two separate junctures.
With that cleared up, my painfully lengthy introduction of a good five or so minutes has finally concluded. The next part will see my attempts at summarizing the development of AI across the years to an extent that I will be personally fine with – and yes, this will be a multi-parter for sure. AI is FAR too interesting of a topic for me not to fully cover, to the greatest of my ability. If you think I sound mildly negative now, premonitions most foreboding of its inevitable growth and thus potential harm from yours truly would become the norm as I disassemble the very nature of AI and bring proper light to what it has already managed to achieve in these few years, and how the few jobs already being replaced are only the appetizer for what’s to come.
…Or, and this is still a possibility, despite all that will eventually be said, it would fail to do anything worth mentioning (sans the already replaced jobs, of course), existing forever as only a goofy commodity for us all to poke fun at and occasionally enjoy when bored beyond belief. The impact of developing technologies is unpredictable, and it always will be. Maybe.
Cont. In part 2.
